The world sometimes enters periods when talking about the economy requires more than balance sheets, interest rates, or inflation figures. At times like these, you need to look at maps. When tanks advance, missiles fly, and diplomatic tables collapse, the economy turns into a story written under the shadow of war.
The 2026 Iran War, which erupted in 2026, appears to be the beginning of exactly such a story.
I am a Certified Public Accountant. For years I have worked with exports, cost calculations, risk analysis, and international trade. Therefore, when I watch war news, the first things that come to mind are not the issues most people focus on—geopolitical balances, military strategy, or ideological conflicts. Instead, my mind immediately turns to these questions:
- What will happen to oil?
- Will logistics routes collapse?
- Will inflation surge again?
- Will Türkiye suffer losses from this, or could it create opportunities?
- How will foreign trade balances and export strategies be affected?
The First Reality of War: Energy
In the Middle East, war almost always means an energy shock for the global economy. Iran’s geopolitical power comes not only from its military capacity but also from its location. A significant portion of global oil trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz. This narrow maritime corridor is essentially one of the main arteries of the global economy.
If this route is disrupted or becomes a serious security risk:
- Oil prices rise rapidly
- Freight costs increase
- Insurance premiums multiply
- Inflation once again becomes the center of the global agenda
Foreign Trade Data and Economic Impact
In 2025, Türkiye’s total exports reached approximately 260 billion USD, while imports were around 300 billion USD. Energy imports account for roughly 25% of this total. Any fluctuation in natural gas and oil prices therefore creates direct pressure on the country’s foreign trade balance.
For example:
- If oil prices increase by 20%, Türkiye’s energy import bill could rise by approximately 15–18 billion USD.
- This increase may raise industrial and logistics costs, narrowing export margins.
- On the other hand, war could redirect some Europe–Asia trade corridors through Türkiye. This may increase transit trade revenues and boost port, logistics, and warehousing services.
During the first quarter of 2026, Türkiye’s major export destinations include:
- Germany: 15 billion USD
- Italy: 12 billion USD
- United States: 10 billion USD
- Iraq and Gulf countries: 8 billion USD
These figures clearly demonstrate how disruptions in Middle Eastern routes could directly influence Türkiye’s export revenues and logistics costs.
The Second Reality of War: Supply Chains
In recent years, the global economy has already experienced two major shocks:
- The pandemic
- The global supply chain crisis
If war is added to these shocks, global trade routes may once again be reshaped. Persian Gulf routes may become riskier, insurance costs may increase, and some countries may search for alternative corridors. For Türkiye, this situation represents both a risk and a potential opportunity.
Risk or Opportunity for Türkiye?
1. Energy Costs May Increase
Türkiye is an energy-importing country. If oil and natural gas prices rise, production costs will also increase, directly affecting industrial and logistics expenses.
2. New Trade Routes May Emerge
Wars sometimes create unexpected trade opportunities. Some trade flows between Europe and Asia could shift toward routes passing through Türkiye, increasing transit revenues.
3. Rising Geopolitical Value
During such periods, the strategic importance of certain countries grows. Türkiye is both a NATO member and a regional power. As a result, a balanced diplomatic strategy may generate economic advantages.
The Greatest Risk: Escalation of the Conflict
Iran has influence over several regional actors, including:
- Hezbollah
- Houthis
If these actors become directly involved, the conflict could expand and potentially draw in major powers such as Israel or the United States. Such a development would directly impact Türkiye’s export routes and logistics corridors.
A War Seen Through the Eyes of a CPA
The accounting profession creates a particular reflex: the instinct to calculate the cost of everything. Wars also have a balance sheet—but it is not measured only in money.
- Economic losses
- Political instability
- Migration waves
- Energy crises
- Loss of foreign trade revenues
- Transit trade opportunities
The 2026 Iran war is only beginning to write its first pages. But history has taught us one important lesson: wars start quickly, but they rarely end quickly. And their deepest impacts are often felt not on the battlefield, but in the heart of the global economy.
