Two consecutive earthquakes of 7.7 and 7.6, which almost destroyed life in 11 provinces, which are described as the disaster of the century , also caused great alarm bells to ring in Turkey’s general economy. According to the information obtained from various sources; Turkey will try to heal these wounds in the next few years . According to some calculations, the financial balance of the earthquake, which can be determined , is between 80 and 87 billion dollars … The agricultural production of the region meets about 17 percent of Turkey’s general agricultural production. Now this production seems to be interrupted for a long time. Therefore, food and agricultural products will be transferred from other production centers to this region. This means that Turkey may experience a serious food shortage this summer . On the other hand, the earthquake region is the region that is least dependent on foreign countries both in industrial production and exports. The industry of the region, unlike the general of Turkey, has a foreign trade surplus. According to the information obtained from the sources; The agricultural potential in the cities affected by the earthquake is higher than in the country in general. The extent of the damage caused by the earthquake to the rural areas where agriculture is made has not been determined yet. The crop production value of 10 provinces constitutes 20 percent of the country’s total crop production value . The cultivated agricultural area is around 14.5%. The animal wealth of the region constitutes 12 percent of the cattle and 16.3 percent of the sheep and goats in the country . A total of 35.8 million decares, 16.2 percent of the 238.5 million decares of arable land across the country, is located in ten earthquake-affected provinces. Among these provinces, Şanlıurfa has the largest agricultural area with 11 million decares. It is followed by Diyarbakır with 5.8 million decares, Adana with 5 million decares, Kahramanmaraş with 3.6 million decares, Gaziantep with 3.5 million decares and Hatay with 2.4 million decares. The total size of the areas where cereals and other plant products are cultivated in ten provinces is 15.5 percent of the country’s total with 25.6 million decares.
15.2 percent of all vegetable gardens in the country with 1.1 million decares are in these ten provinces. Ten provinces have a 25.2 percent share in fruit, beverage and spice planting areas with 9.3 million decares. In other words, one fourth of the areas where these products are grown are located in these ten provinces. Şanlıurfa, Diyarbakır and Adana stand out by a wide margin in the areas where grains such as wheat and barley are produced, Adana and Hatay in the vegetable garden area and Gaziantep in the fruit area. While the ten earthquake-affected provinces have a share of 9.3 percent in the total gross domestic product (GDP), the agriculture sector stands out with a share of 14.3 percent in the gross product . Among these, the province with the largest share in agricultural added value is Şanlıurfa with 3 percent. Adana has 2.5 percent, Diyarbakir 2.2 percent, Kahramanmaraş 1.4 percent, Gaziantep and Hatay 1.3 percent each in the total agricultural value added. The share of Malatya and Adıyaman is also approaching 1 percent. The total share of ten provinces in the industrial value added, mostly agricultural products, is at a substantial level with 11.2 percent. The province with the largest contribution in the industry is Gaziantep with 3.6 percent, followed by Adana with 2.2 percent and Hatay with 1.8 percent. The share of the services sector in the total country value added in ten provinces remains at a lower level with 7.1 percent. Ten provinces affected by the earthquake account for one-fifth of Turkey’s total exports of agricultural and forestry products. Among these provinces, Gaziantep alone realized 11.8 percent of Turkey’s total agriculture and forestry exports of 34.2 billion dollars in 2022 . Adana had a share of 2.5 percent, Hatay 2.4 percent, and Malatya 1 percent in total annual agricultural exports. Although the shares of other provinces are at lower levels, the share of ten provinces in total agricultural exports was 18.7 percent. Gaziantep’s agricultural exports exceeded 4 billion dollars last year, and exports of “agricultural industrial products”, including textiles, leather and carpets, amounted to 3.8 billion dollars.
Gaziantep is the province that exports the most industrial products among ten provinces. The province’s industrial exports last year, with 6.5 billion dollars, constituted 3.5 percent of Turkey’s total industrial exports. While Adana had a share of 1.4 percent and Hatay a 1.1 percent share in the total country’s industrial exports, the total share of ten provinces reached 7.3 percent. The share of ten provinces in total country exports approached 9 percent last year. Covering an area starting from Adana Çukurova to Şanlıurfa Harran Plain; It is a region that hosts Turkey’s very important plant production such as almonds, walnuts and pistachios, and 13-15 percent of our cattle and ovine livestock. At the same time, we obtain about 15-16 percent of our agricultural product from that region. The earthquake region contributes 10.1 percent to Turkey’s GDP. 10 provinces constitute 10.9 percent of Turkey’s exports and 7.5 percent of tax revenues, according to 2022 data. Economists draw attention to the loss of production caused by the earthquake. According to TUIK 2021 data, the contribution of the 10 provinces where the disaster was experienced to Turkey’s GDP is 674 billion 830 million TL, and considering that 50 percent of it was wiped out by the earthquake, the required investment amount is calculated as 350 billion TL.
On the other hand, Hatay, Kahramanmaraş and Adıyaman, the three provinces most damaged by the earthquake, have a 2.6 percent share in Turkey’s GDP and 2.2 percent in exports, and the earthquake’s impact on agricultural regions and light industrial production areas is limited. may remain . One of the first reports on the cost of the earthquake to Turkey came from the Turkish Enterprise and Business Confederation (TÜRKONFED). TÜRKONFED, in its report titled “The Disaster Status Report of the Kahramanmaraş Earthquake in 2023” , predicted that the earthquakes would cause 84.1 billion dollars of financial damage for the Turkish economy . In the report, it was estimated that $70.75 billion of this financial damage would be housing loss, $10.4 billion loss of national income and $2.91 billion loss of working days.
Ten provinces affected by the earthquake account for 10.1 percent of Turkey’s total gross domestic product (GDP). Considering the provinces other than Istanbul and the Marmara region, which account for the majority of GDP, this corresponds to a high rate. The 1.15 points of the growth of 11.35 percent in the Turkish economy in 2021 originated from these ten provinces. Considering that Istanbul’s contribution to the annual growth rate of Istanbul, which accounts for 35 percent of GDP alone, is 3.96 points, the extent of the contribution of ten provinces can be understood. Especially Gaziantep, whose contribution to annual GDP growth is 0.25 points on its own, is the 8th province with the highest contribution.
A total of 71 companies from Gaziantep, 29 of which managed to enter the list of ISO’s top 500 industrial enterprises, and 38 of which were in the second 500, are among Turkey’s top 1000 industrial enterprises. 13 in the top 500 in Kahramanmaraş, 11 in the second 500, 10 in the top 500 in Adana, 14 in the second, 9 in the top 500 in Hatay, 8 in the second, 6 and 8 in Mersin, respectively, and in Osmaniye There is a company in 2 and 3, and one in the second 500 in Malatya. Accordingly, a total of 151 companies, 69 of which are in the top 500 and 82 in the second, in ten provinces are among Turkey’s top 1000 industrial enterprises.
Ten earthquake-affected provinces realized 10.9 percent of Turkey’s total exports of 254.2 billion liras, amounting to 27.6 billion dollars, in 2022. Gaziantep alone made 11.2 billion dollars of this. Mersin was among the provinces with the highest exports, with 6.2 billion dollars, Hatay 4.1 billion dollars and Adana 3.1 billion dollars. Ten earthquake-affected provinces paid 176.4 billion liras and 7.5 percent of the state’s total tax revenues of 2 trillion 353.3 billion liras in 2022. 567.7 billion liras and 6.9 percent of the central government’s total budget revenues, which were 2 trillion 802.4 billion liras last year, were obtained from these ten provinces. In ten provinces where the earthquake caused serious loss of life and property, the stagnation of production, trade, economic activities, and the inability to pay taxes mean a significant loss in terms of public finances.
The loss of life and property and the interruption of economic processes in the provinces hit by the earthquake will adversely affect the balance sheet of the banking sector. With this ten, which has 6.9 percent of the deposits of 8 trillion 253.7 billion liras in the sector, and 567.7 billion liras as of the end of 2022, 10.3 percent of the total cash loans, which was 7 trillion 643.4 billion liras as of the same date. It has used a portion of 784.9 billion liras.
Adıyaman OIZ President Abdulkadir Çelenk summarizes the gravity of the situation with these words: Around 10 of our factories were destroyed, we are not in a position to work for a long time.
Adıyaman Organized Industrial Zone President Abdulkadir Çelenk stated that the number of houses destroyed throughout the province was very high and they had difficulty in estimating the death toll, saying, ” Our city has been badly damaged. Many apartments have been destroyed. I hope this too shall pass.”
Şanlıurfa Chamber of Commerce and Industry Chairman Mehmet Yetim also gave the information that production in the industry stopped due to the earthquake and said, “There is no production, everything has stopped. The staff cannot come to work. Orders will wait.”
Adana Hacı Sabancı OIZ President Bekir Sütçü stated that they are working at a capacity of 20-25 percent.
On the other hand, in parallel with the decrease in the contribution of the provinces to the national income, it is estimated that the exports of the cities exposed to the disaster may fall below the level of 15 billion dollars with the impact of the deterioration of the port infrastructure.
The economic loss is very high in Hatay, Antakya and İskenderun districts, which are the cities most affected by the earthquake. Hatay’s agricultural lands, soil structure, climate and other natural conditions allowed diversity in product patterns, early harvest and second crop production. It is possible to produce in all four seasons of the year in Hatay. Especially fruit, vegetable and olive groves are well above the average of Turkey. 275,578 hectares (50%) of the total 552,400 hectares of land of the province consists of agricultural lands. With state investments, 57,196 hectares (33%) of land is irrigated and 63% of the agricultural areas are irrigated.
According to TUIK data; Hatay was in the 1st place in Turkey in the production of 4 agricultural products, in the 2nd place in the production of 2 agricultural products and in the 3rd place in the production of 5 agricultural products.
According to 2016 data of Hatay TUIK; The province ranks first in Turkey in parsley, chard, tangerine and dill production, second in plum and spring onion production, and third in Turkey in carrot, cotton, goldentop, loquat and citrus production. Hatay is a city where 21.7% of our country’s fresh fruit and vegetable exports are realized. Agricultural export value is 689 million TL and Saudi Arabia, Syria, Russia and Iraq are among the countries with the highest exports. The most exported products are Lemon, Orange and Mandarin. The development of the fruit and vegetable packaging sector in the province has a great role in the success of Hatay in the said sector. While the number of bovine animals in Hatay was 76,949 in 2002, this number increased to 126,883 in 2016 and 339,059 small cattle. Hatay province; It stands out especially in the presence of poultry and related production. 58 percent of the chickens in the region, all of the white meat production and 47 percent of the egg production are located in Hatay. According to TUIK data in 2015, Hatay province has an agricultural production value of approximately 3.5 billion TL. In Hatay, which is also an important province in terms of beekeeping activities, 1,176 tons of honey was produced in 94,888 hives in 2016. According to the information received from the Hatay Provincial Directorate of the Ministry of Industry and Technology, there are 2,102 companies with Industry Registry Certificates throughout Hatay as of 2018. 351 of the 2,102 enterprises with Industrial Registry Certificate in Hatay, 16.7% of them, operate in Iskenderun. Industry in Hatay is highly developed in sectors such as iron and steel, filters, food, textiles and chemistry.
Adıyaman is the biggest producer of an important source of income apart from agriculture and tourism. Almost 60% of the crude oil extracted in our country is obtained from the wells in Adıyaman. However, since the opening of new oil wells has slowed down in recent years, a parallel decrease has been observed in production.
Oil production is carried out not only by TPAO, but also by private sector enterprises operating in the region. Oil production values in the table below include only TPAO’s productions. Private sector production amount is approximately 1,000,000 barrels/year
Sources:
DOĞAKA (Eastern Mediterranean Development Agency), Dünya newspaper, TUIK, Economy Agency, Social Media (Google) The
Cost of the Earthquake to Turkey is Heavy – Haber Hürriyet (haberhurriyet.com)
