Dış trade figures or year-end forecasts make some people optimistic. They see growth in Excel files and draw upward arrows on charts. Everyone who doesn’t go into the field is optimistic anyway. But we are in the field. We look at invoices, collections, and costs. And let’s be clear:
Yesterday was better than today. And tomorrow will be worse than today.
As we enter 2026, foreign trade data does not look too bad at first glance. Exports increase in certain periods, targets are announced big. But when you dig under this increase, the reality is this: Exports are surviving through price, while volumes are shrinking. Order continuity does not exist.
In other words, we are not actually growing. We are simply selling less at higher prices. And this is not sustainable. The biggest obstacle for exporters today is not foreign markets, but the domestic economic structure. The exchange rate does not rise → you cannot price competitively. Inflation does not fall → costs cannot be controlled. Financing is absent or very limited → production cannot be sustained. The result?
If you sell, you make a loss; if you don’t sell, you fall out of the system. This is not a trade problem, this is a survival problem.
In 2026, everyone is searching for new markets. But this is not a strategic growth move. It is the result of shrinking existing markets.
Europe is still our largest customer. But conditions are changing: Demand is weakening day by day. Companies’ price sensitivity is increasing, they want higher quality materials at lower prices. Competition from the Far East is back. China and India are now offering more competitive products with improved quality. We used to stand out with quality. Now we fall behind on price.
Africa has been a popular topic in recent years. But the real picture is: High collection risk. Expensive logistics. Difficult operations. Africa can be an opportunity… but not for everyone. For most companies, it is: a market entered because there is no alternative.
The Middle East market is attractive because it is close, fast, and practical. But at the same time: political risk is high, the market is volatile, and continuity is weak. You can make sales today, and the market may close tomorrow.
Russia and neighboring countries may seem like a short-term solution, but: payment systems are problematic, sanctions have indirect effects, and trade is not sustainable. In other words, this is not a target market… it is a temporary escape zone.
In 2026, some sectors will stand out: defense industry, software and technology, and high value-added production. But for traditional exporters, the situation is different: textile, food, plastics, low value-added manufacturing. In these areas, margins are rapidly eroding because the world demands cheap production, while we are forced to produce at higher costs.
In meetings, the same topics are always discussed: digitalization, branding, value-added production. But the reality on the ground is: companies cannot access credit, cash flow is disrupted, and risk appetite is gone. So the issue is no longer growth, but survival.
No one says it out loud, but the picture is clear: export figures will increase (on paper), profitability will decline (in reality), and the number of firms will decrease (silently). 2026 will be a year in which exports grow, but exporters do not profit.
Yesterday was better because: costs were more controllable, competition was more balanced, and markets were more predictable. Today everything is uncertain. Tomorrow will be harder because global competition is intensifying, local costs are rising, and access to finance is becoming even more difficult.
This year’s summary is very clear:
2026 is not a year of growth, but a year of endurance.
There may be no winners this year… but there will definitely be losers. Companies that survive will not be called “successful”; they will simply be the ones that did not fall out of the system.
